Do numbers matter?

Have we become accustomed to decline?

The Church in the UK has probably been in decline since the end of World War 2, that's a long time. Most people in the Church have lived with their whole life in a declining Church. While some Churches thrive, most are in a slow but deadly decline. It's become normal in the UK. There is no daily sense of shock and awe.

Does God call us to count churchgoers?

When answering questions about the decline in churchgoing, Church leaders may say that numbers are not important. The odds are that these same leaders count the collection, so are they saying they are more concerned with money than people? Another common answer is that they are concerned about excellence than numbers. Yet if their Church is so good how come no one wants to go there? Other leaders prefer the answer that God calls them to feed sheep not count them. This answer sounds as if it has biblical authority, but how does the shepherd in the parable know that one of his sheep is lost?

Parable of the lost sheep

What do you think? If a man owns a hundred sheep, and one of them wanders away, will he not leave the ninety-nine on the hills and go to look for the one that wandered off?

And if he finds it, I tell you the truth, he is happier about that one sheep than about the ninety-nine that did not wander off.

In the same way your Father in heaven is not willing that any of these little ones should be lost.

Matthew 18:12-14 NIV

Enough said? Common sense says numbers are important and Jesus cared so much for the lost he died on the cross for them.

Do statistics lie?

It was Benjamin Disraeli who would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.' Like all good sayings there is some truth in this. The way you ask questions in a survey, the selection of favorable results, and the way charts are plotted can all give a false impression. In many situations, however, statistics are our best clue to the cause of a problem. Pollsters can use their skills in the way they put questions to get accurate answers, and in turn the researchers can use their skills choose and display results in ways that help people understand them.

Are statistics a good indicator of the future?

Like any trend the decline of the Church could change at any moment. We have a God who has a history of revivals. The point is that unless the problem has been addressed the trend will not change and the statistics will be a good prediction of the future. The rate of decline in the Church has been remarkaby constant for at least 25 years, so why should it change in the next 25 years? That is the question that Church leaders need to answer. Is their latest diagnosis and solution any better than the others they have tried in the last 25 years?

Surely God will not let His Church in the UK fail?

The wordwide Church has never been stronger with more Christians and faster growth than ever before. Its not at risk if the Church in the UK fails, but such failure has occurred before. For example many of the fathers of the early Church came from North Africa (people like Augustine of Hippo), but the Church in the whole of North Africa failed in the 7th century and there are few Christians in that part of the world today. In the past there is no doubt that the Church in the UK played a vital part in the development of Western Christianity and in particular North America. The question is, is the UK God's country today?

What should our response to reports be?

We have an opportunity to learn from what the statistical research is telling us. Much may have to do with the interpretation that the statistician has put on any results and the way that any forecasting is done. Forecasts that look forward more then a few years are necessarily subject to a grater probability of error. But that is not to say that they are without value. Their worth may be found if they trigger a constructive debate on the future of the Church.